There is no doubt that the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen in recent decades from about 300 ppm to about 400 ppm. A rise of about 30%. Which is quite significant.
What, if anything, is this doing to our planet?
The climate change lobby has for some time been asserting that this rise in the level of carbon dioxide is bound to cause runaway global warming. Unhappily for them, their predictions have not been made good. The best data are the lower atmosphere readings, because these are free from the errors and manipulations that were recently identified by Dr John McLean’s audit. The data shows that there was a temperature spike in 1998, following which there was a hiatus of around 15 years, during which time there was no increase in global temperatures. Then, in around 2014, there was another rise leading to a spike in 2016, temperatures then getting up to the same level as the 1998 spike. Since then, there has been some modest Continue reading
It has been a very bad few weeks for the global warming industry.
Last month – September – was the coldest, globally, for a decade. Melbourne had its coldest September morning in 15 years. And it was the coldest September day ever recorded in Germany and Holland. Likewise record cold in Canada. And Delaware. And East Anglia. All over the place, in fact.
Obviously, an exceptionally cold patch is no more statistically significant than an exceptionally warm patch. Much more worrying for the warmists is the audit of the HadCRUT4 data published a few days ago, carried out by Dr John McLean and published by Robert Boyle Publishing.
Those who care about this issue know exactly what the HadCRUT4 data is, but lest you do not, gentle reader, I should explain that it is the dataset that has been used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to make its various claims about global warming that has occurred, and its various predictions about further global warming. The accuracy of this data is of course fundamental if any reliance is to be put on the IPCC predictions – “garbage in, garbage out” as they say.
And so I spent the $US 8 necessary to buy An Audit of the Creation and Content of theHadCRUT4 Temperature Dataset. It is 135 pages long. Some of the findings merely suggest that the data collection has been sloppy. Others suggest that the data, especially in the earlier years, is extraordinarily sparse such that there is a very wide error margin. Some of the data is plainly nonsense, such as data purportedly from ships reporting positions many miles from the sea. There has been much data which has been changed in an unreliable way (homogenised, as they call it) without any adequate record being kept of such changes. There are 75 such types of error painstakingly identified. And there are a couple of things about it which are particularly Continue reading
I see that tired old canard about 97% of all experts agreeing with climate change alarmism is doing the rounds again!
For heaven’s sake! This is on the level of photoshopped pictures purporting to show George W Bush holding a telephone upside down, or manufactured quotes of Donald Trump allegedly saying that he went with the Republicans because they are stupid. There are so many holes in the 97% nonsense it is hard to know where to start. And I won’t. But it has been a remarkably successful piece of propaganda, and does indicate (i) that the floppies have done surprising well taking the public for gullible fools and/or (ii) that the old Nazi technique – of repeating lies often enough turns them in facts, of a sort – does work, at least to a degree.
For a selection of the many debunkings of this 97% stuff, see Continue reading
Living a hour out of town, I quite often listen to podcasts in my car, and particularly like the BBC Radio 4 programme In Our Time, in which Melvyn Bragg interviews experts on a variety of topics from culture, to history, to philosophy, to science etc. A recent programme was on the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, which is when the planet got about 5° hotter than normal about 50 million years ago. There is a useful summary at Seven things that happened when the planet got really, really hot and the podcast itself can still be downloaded.
There are lots of interesting things to say about the PETM, and Melvyn’s guests said quite a lot of them, but the programme was somewhat marred by the climate change claptrap that seems to permeate everything these days. The real scientific reality is that the cause of the PETM is unknown, but this gets translated into Flopsy as “The cause of the PETM must have been carbon dioxide, but the cause of the carbon dioxide is unknown”.
One of the interesting things about the PETM is that it was a good thing. Rapid global warming (much more pronounced than anything on the cards today) produced an explosion of evolution, including the evolution of our own ancestors. And so, without that period of rapid global warming, it is far Continue reading
Although his website site does have a somewhat deranged feel to it, Piers Corbyn (brother of the more famous Jeremy) seems to have been correct in his long-range forecasts of the present cold and snowy weather in the UK and elsewhere.
Piers is not only much cleverer than his brother, but is free to say what he really thinks. And to indulge his propensity to crow a bit about the fact that his forecasts are consistently more accurate than those of the Met Office. It is all a bit counter-intuitive. The Met Office looks all solid and dependable, but in fact is ridden with barking-mad climate change group-think nonsense. Conversely, Piers looks as mad as a March hare, but time after time events, as they have unfolded, have vindicated his forecasts. Which is, after all, the gold standard of real science. This reversal of the norm is rare, but then again, we live in strange times.
Here are a few of Piers’ observations about weather, climate and others things at his website/twitter feed Continue reading
It is seriously worrying that the South Australian government is currently spending $2.6 million of taxpayers money on an advertising campaign about energy. It now says that it is “taking control” of the situation. That is bad. Very bad.
Electricity here is already 3 times as expensive as in the US, and I have had many power cuts this year. So a bad situation looks like it is going to get much worse before it gets better.
So I have installed a solar system on the roof. This is not because I think solar is great. It is because I think the grid supply is really bad, and getting worse. It comes with an internet based dashboard, so I can see what it going on. Right now, for example, my panels are generating 5kW. Most of that is powering the house. Some is charging up the battery which provides power at night. And I am exporting a bit of it to the grid. It is surprisingly compelling, watching the dashboard as the sun comes out and then dives back behind a cloud.
Daft ideas from the State government here Continue reading
This was in The Times today:
We were wrong — worst effects of climate change can be avoided, say experts
Scientists admit that world is warming more slowly than predicted
The worst impacts of climate change can still be avoided, senior scientists have said after revising their previous predictions.
The world has warmed more slowly than had been forecast by computer models, which were “on the hot side” and overstated the impact of emissions, a new study has found….
The study, published in the journal Nature Geoscience… suggests that the world has more time to make the changes.
Michael Grubb, professor of international energy and climate change at University College London and one of the study’s authors, admitted that his past prediction had been wrong…
They could have saved themselves a few lines by simply announcing “Robert Was Right”.
The world establishment is going apoplectic about Trump pulling the US out of the Paris Accord. Even normally-moderate news channels are broadcasting lectures instead of reporting news, scarcely able to contain their rage. It is as though a country in the Arab Middle East said it did not believe in Islam any more.
There are other views, of course.
Trump is not an ideal POTUS, but it would take a genius to be wrong about absolutely everything. And anyway, it Continue reading
The construction of my swimming pool is coming along nicely. Just in time for winter.
Could global warming be my saviour? One of the acid tests is the Antarctic Peninsular: the bit that sticks out furthest north from that chilly continent. According to Wikipedia:
The Antarctic Peninsula is a part of the world that is experiencing extraordinary warming
No such luck, however. So far this century, the peninsular has been stubbornly refusing the exhortations of Al Gore, Wikipedia et al to hurry up and melt. Instead, it has got colder by about a degree; see Jo Nova. Or if you want to, read the review of the paper itself which analyses the latest results.
Today was a Continue reading
There must be, I guess, some sort of prize out there for the person in the world with the most chutzpah. How else to explain that Al Gore, the man responsible for the disgraceful An Inconvenient Truth, is up for a sequel!
For a few moments, An Inconvenient Truth looked to many people like a serious piece of work. But then people started fact-checking it. It is riddled with errors, and the internet is full of debunking analyses; see for example, The Daily Caller, The Blaze, NewsBusters, Natural News. More authoritatively, the High Court in London declared it seriously flawed as “not supported by current mainstream scientific consensus.” The Artic has nor melted, nor have the snows of Kilimanjaro, and extreme weather events are down, not up, with no runaway global warming.
Still, Gore has made himself a very rich man. His net asset value has gone up from about $1m to some $200m, having recently sold about half of his holding in Apple.
One of Gore’s rabbits has been Michael Mann, the inventor of the now-discredited “hockey stick” – the graph that attempted to hide the fact that it was hotter in Medieval times than today. Mann had a rough time this week in Continue reading