True Ratio

I have come to have a rather high regard for Professor Philip Tetlock (@PTetlock on Twitter) who has interesting things to say about the skill of forecasting. He posted recently about the assertion-to-evidence ratio.[1] In short, the higher the assertion-to-evidence ratio in anything you hear or read, the more sceptical you should be about it.

It was not a particularly hot summer here on the Fleurieu Peninsula. In fact, I would assert that it’s been decidedly chilly for the last year or so, compared with normal. Is that a mere assertion? No no no. I see that Professor Ole Humlum’s careful review of the recent evidence – State of the Climate 2021 – contains a map of the world identifying the places where last year was a bit cooler than average, and places where last year was a bit warmer than average.

As you can see, it was a bit warmer than average in eastern North America, and in some parts of the Middle East, and maybe just a tiny bit warmer than usual in the Sahara.[2] The rest of the world, including Australia, was either the same or cooler than usual. Continental Europe, Alaska and Siberia were quite a bit cooler than usual. And Australia – yes – colder.

Compared with

Angela’s Legs II

There is more to report on the saga of Angela Rayner’s legs. It turns out that the original source of the story that she had sought to use her legs in Parliament to distract the Prime Minister was – surprise – surprise – none other than Angela Rayner herself. That, at any rate, is the evidence of several people who overheard her saying that she had done it, at the time apparently thinking it was all a bit of a lark.[1]

That is not to say that her amusing story was true. Angela Rayner seems to enjoy a good time, and why shouldn’t she? She may have just made the story up as a laugh.

But it does make those, including both the Prime Minister and the speaker, who have got all righteous about it, look rather silly.

Boris Johnson says that he telephoned Angela Rayner after the story broke to dissociate himself from it, and he has threatened “the terrors of the earth” on whoever was the origin of the story, if he ever finds out who that was. I wonder if Angela admitted that

Angela’s Legs

I’m not sure I am entirely following the kerfuffle about Angela Rayner’s legs. It seems the suggestion has been made that she has been crossing and uncrossing her legs in Parliament in order to distract Boris Johnson.  Like Sharon Stone in Basic Instinct.

But as far as I can see, as deputy leader of the opposition, she sits behind the opposition dispatch box. Such that Boris Johnson would not be able to see her legs unless he were to clamber up over his own dispatch box and gaze down at her. Which not even Boris Johnson would do. Or, so far as I’m aware, is it suggested that he has done.

And so it looks like rather silly story?

Although I note that there is very little enquiry as to

Dumb Lyrics I

In 1964, the British band The Zombies got to number 12 in the UK singles chart with their song “She’s not there”. It did better in Canada, getting to number two. Apparently, according to Rolling Stone magazine, it rates as number 297 on the list of the greatest songs of all time.

The lyrics include:

Well, let me tell you ’bout the way she looked
The way she acts and the colour of her hair

It is not promising for a very interesting conversation:

ZOMBIE: She’s not here. Anyway, her hair is blonde

AUDIENCE: Oh. Right.

Of the composer, Rod Argent, Wikipedia reports:

In Defence of Truth, from the Trenches

From about 11.30. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TryFMOekX8w. One of the most elequent speeches in favour of scientific freedom I have heard. Bravo Dr John Campbell.

Partygate is All Bollocks

It is, I suppose, fair enough for those who dislike Boris Johnson to denounce him as a lawbreaker and a liar. In the mud wrestling which passes for politics these days, such denunciations seem to be par for the course, whether there is any truth to them or not, and it is not immediately obvious that those on the right of politics are much less blameworthy in this respect than those on the left.

But it is worth bearing in mind that it’s all bollocks. On proper analysis, it seems that Boris Johnson did not break the law at any of the Downing Street “parties”, nor did he lie to Parliament in this regard.  The legal position in both respects has been set out in The Spectator by the barrister Steven Barrett.

As to the first, the allegation of illegality fails to get to first base, because, as Mr Barrett explains, by section 73 of the Public Health (Control of Disease) Act 1984[1] the sorts of regulations only apply to Crown buildings if the Crown says they do, and in this case they didn’t.  Further, Mr Barrett goes

Happy Couple

An Ill Wind

A few weeks ago, I drove past a large wind farm north of Adelaide. And a few days ago, past a rather smaller one, Starfish Hill Wind Farm, which is about 25 miles from home. We can just about see this one on a clear day.

There is something profoundly depressing about these things, it seems to me. They loom over the landscape like resentful mausoleums slowly sucking the life out of the world around them. The poor are burdened with and more tax so as to provide the subsidies that are paid out to the owners – inevitably wealthy – of these things. It is a disgrace.

The case for zero oxygen

There are those who are against carbon dioxide; they think it is a pollutant. That is potty enough; carbon dioxide is essential for life. Without it, all the plants would die, and if all the plants died, the vegetarians would have nothing to eat. For that matter, the animals would have nothing to eat[1], so there would be no meat for the rest of us to eat either. By historical standards, current levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are pretty low[2], but have been rising recently, from about 300 ppm to about 400 ppm.[3]  That rise, over the last few decades, has been hugely beneficial to the world; plants are remarkably efficient about extracting the little carbon dioxide that there is in the atmosphere and the rise from 300 ppm to 400 ppm has caused welcome increase in vegetation around the world.

Anyway, the flopsies are against carbon dioxide, and annoyingly they call it “carbon”. This is stupid, because a carbon dioxide molecule contains one atom of carbon and two atoms of oxygen. It would be less stupid (although still pretty damned stupid) to call carbon dioxide “oxygen”, since carbon dioxide is more oxygen than carbon.[4] So that instead of going for “zero carbon” they could go for “zero oxygen”.

And anyway again, if they must refer to carbon dioxide as carbon, why do they not refer to water as hydrogen? After all, a water molecule has got two hydrogen atoms for every oxygen atom.

It is all bonkers. The plain facts

Crane Check

They say you can check building activity by counting up how many cranes can be seen.

Here it is one.*

Checking up on my construction: the duckhouse.