Category Archives: Forecasting

Flopsy Killer Chart Topper?

flopsiesThere are of course numerous ways in which the flopsies kill people.

  • Among the most recent are the efforts of NGOs funded by the European Union to prevent the use of insecticides in Africa. This has caused a massive plague of locusts, and hence famine.
  • Coronavirus lockdown inevitably causes massive damage to economies, and will inevitably mean that, in the years to come, governments will inevitably be less able to afford to offer free healthcare.
  • The antinuclear power movement means more expensive domestic electricity. In Japan, for example, the shutdown of the nuclear industry following the Fukushima incident has caused massive electricity price increases, and hence cost many lives of those who have been unable to afford to heat their homes properly.
  • Similarly, the climate change lobby is especially damaging to Third World regions in stifling the deployment of affordable power generation. People die, not least, because they are forced to continue to cook their food indoors using dung and other unsuitable materials as fuel sources.

The common factor, of course, is that the deaths are always indirect consequences; the flopsies rarely have to watch their victims suffer and die. And when they do, they will persuade themselves that someone else is to blame. Take the first example, the flopsies who cause the plagues that would otherwise have been prevented by the use of insecticides might see starving children, but they are highly unlikely to Continue reading

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Good Judgment?

PennIt is not as if I am short of things to do, workwise. But all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy, and having got a couple of predictions right on Good Judgment Open[1], I have accepted an invitation to join Good Judgment Project 2.0.

This is run by Professor Philip Tetlock and Barb Mellers of the University of Pennsylvania, and the predictions they are looking for are not by any means woolly. One has to ascribe percentage possibilities to possible outcomes across a wide range of world events. All very detailed stuff. Participants get marked according to the accuracy of their predictions. And the top 2% are entitled to call themselves superforecasters.

I’m expecting that it might well turn out to be a cogent lesson in humility! The field will include proven superforecasters, who will certainly be Continue reading

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Filed under Forecasting, Uncategorized