It is not as if I am short of things to do, workwise. But all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy, and having got a couple of predictions right on Good Judgment Open[1], I have accepted an invitation to join Good Judgment Project 2.0.
This is run by Professor Philip Tetlock and Barb Mellers of the University of Pennsylvania, and the predictions they are looking for are not by any means woolly. One has to ascribe percentage possibilities to possible outcomes across a wide range of world events. All very detailed stuff. Participants get marked according to the accuracy of their predictions. And the top 2% are entitled to call themselves superforecasters.
I’m expecting that it might well turn out to be a cogent lesson in humility! The field will include proven superforecasters, who will certainly be well ahead of me, both in terms of forecasting techniques and the resources they can put into researching their Fermi sub-questions. But hey ho. I guess it shows some commitment to trying to be more fox than hedgehog.
All of this is open book, and they show you what is being predicted by other participants. Avoiding groupthink is essential. One of the interesting things about the Good Judgment Open project is that about half the participants reckon that the Democrats will win this year’s presidential election in the United States. Now, I am no great fan of President Trump[2], but the usual pattern is for presidents to win a second term, and I see nothing in the present political climate to buck that trend, so I reckon the odds are heavily in favour of Trump winning. But I also reckon that many of the participants in the Good Judgment Open project are well-meaning, intellectually curious Democrat supporters. So I wonder whether they are making their prediction according to what they wish will happen, rather than what is really likely to happen?
The beauty of all of this is that we will see. All gets revealed.
[1] I make predictions about the postponement of the Monaco Grand Prix this year, and the number of COVID-19 infections.
[2] Neither am I any great fan of either Joe Biden (who is a windbag) or Bernie Sanders (who is an outright nutter).
phenell 
I go for a Democrat win for several reasons. The fly over vote will be much reduced as the poor bastards in the middle go back to scratching out a living in an ever harder environment. The majority of these people do not normally vote at all and to do it twice may be just a step too far. Those who didn’t bother to vote as they couldn’t imagine Trump actually winning or voted against Hillary and not actually for Trump will be back voting Dem. The shock of having such a poor specimen of humanity as their president will entice a goodly number of others to rise of their well fed backsides and vote. And so it goes on. Mind you, the virus, a good little war or an exceptional effort by vested interest or foreign disruption may mean all bets are off. Still, my money is on the Democrats.
It is possible, Ian, that you are right about this. But I suspect that your comment is motivated much more by what you want to happen, rather than what is likely.