I reckon I have done pretty well at the prediction game recently. I predicted that science would come around to the view that homo sapiens had interbred with Neanderthals in Europe. I predicted that Julia Gillard would knife Kevin Rudd in the back to become Prime Minister of Australia. I predicted that Tin Flannery would become an icon of national fun. Tum te tum.
Sometimes, these predictions have been on my blog, but all too often they have been views expressed merely over a dinner table. So, I thought it might be time to set out some unfulfilled predictions, in the public gaze, so that we can see how well my Delphic powers stand the crucible of history. Anyway, it is tough to say, “I told you so” in any graceful way, so the adamantine tablet of internet stone might be less weasley. Here we go, for what will happen in the next 18 months:
Greece will be forced out of the Euro. They will default on their loans and print Drachma like confetti. The French banks will lose a pile. Otherwise, people will care rather less than current predictions suggest.
The Australian Labor Party will lose power, and as soon as that happens, the Australian economy will react like a rat up a drainpipe. As Prime Minister, Tony Abbott will turn out to be not nearly so potty as people assume.
The notion that we are all about to fry, or drown, as a result of CO2 emissions, will become increasingly marginalised.
People will stop building wind farms, as concerns grow about their health risks. These concerns will be reinforced by the reality that no one wants to waste any more money (which they do not have anyway) on gesture projects.
Other Latin countries will follow in Greece’s path, on the basis that the Greeks have been onto something that is not too bad at all, really. Better than austerity, anyway.
The next Australian Government will fire Tim Flannery as Climate Change Commissioner, whereupon the ABC will hire him to do propaganda on air, thus giving us all a giggle.
The notion of “peak oil” will recede further, as more and more oil is discovered, in part by reason of abiotic oil predictions of where undiscovered oil lies.
The Queen will die, peacefully in her sleep, and knowing in her heart that she has done well. Charles will become King, change his name to Henry or something similar, and despite being as nutty as a fruitcake, will be a popular and successful successor. Queen Camilla will become a gay icon (this last bit is just a “maybe” really).
Mitt Romney will win the US presidency. Not much will change. People will say that Obama’s forged birth certificate was his fatal unforced error.
The Germans will want to take military action to recover their assets from those that flee the Euro with all that German financial aid being pissed into the wind. This is only a “maybe” because they will probably be thwarted by the Americans, who will be starting to realise that too many wars can be very expensive, and even the Americans will start to be worrying about the fact that they are in the deep, deep, doo-doos on the financial front.
The Large Hadron Collider will start producing massively important results, which will open the door to yet more powerful nano-technology. But this is just a “maybe” because these things take time, and this might well take more than 18 months.
Boris Johnson will succeed David Cameron as leader of the Conservative Party in the UK.
The Australian governments will stop their support of addictive gambling. They should do this right now, but they will probably continue to make too much money out it in taxes to stop.
Governments around the world will stop posting absurdly low speed limits on the roads. See above.
People will stop giving themselves skin cancer by using sunscreens. See above, with the addition of Big Pharma making too much money etc.